At the last count, the number of aspirants for the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was over 20, and this has made predictions of who would clinche the party ticket seem mostly based on calculations that are more intuitive than certain.
The justle for the party ticket evoke memories of the race for the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential in 1993 when over 30 contestants declared interest for that party’s presidential slot. The similarities are distinct, with the multitude of contestants and uncertainties over who would emerge, even as the necessary horse-trading continued.
After President Buhari’s somewhat contradictory statement during a Channels television interview in January that he had no interest in who emerged as the APC presidential candidate, but at the same time alluding to the presence of a possible choice by insisting “the person could be eliminated” if he mentioned a name, he has stirred a nationwide search for who that mystery candidate could be.
Of the several contestants that have acquired some mystique around their ambitions, four of them, Vice-president Yemi Osinbajo, former Lagos state governor and APC national leader Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Minister of Transport Rotimi Amaechi and Ekiti state governor Kayode Fayemi have attracted the most attention, but the search has not been limited to them.
Regardless of the uncertainty over the president’s choice, the four aspirants have built mass support for their ambitions, unwittingly enjoying the gains of the president’s evasiveness on the issue, which also seems to suggest his implicit approval for an open contest. The four aspirants have been hard at work traversing the country consulting and selling their candidacy to APC delegates.
Of these four leading contenders, the Vice-President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, has attracted a lot of interest. As much as many see his and Fayemi’s declarations as a plot against Tinubu’s ambitions, they cite his perfect working relationship with the president since their emergence in 2015 as a major factor that could work in his favour.
Some opinions suggest that the president would most likely take this amiable working relationship as proof of their similar visions. The vice-president clearly stands a chance. Apart from his obvious loyalty to his boss, his professional antecedents define him as a technocrat and he is also a strong force to contend with as a man well positioned in the corridors of power to know how to navigate the labyrinth of intrigues at play.
Many believe Osinbajo’s decision to contest against his political mentor Tinubu, implies that he has the endorsement of a force greater than his political godfather’s. Nigeria’s paternalistic political structure would normally forbid such a move except the decision is driven by a force that is more powerful. It is also politically expedient for the Vice-President as he is considered a strong political asset for the APC who could easily lead the party to victory at the polls.
The vice president stands a strong chance of victory if chosen, judging from the widespread support he enjoys among many who describe his brief periods as acting president to be moments of bold decision-making and decisive leadership that helped address some serious grievances at the time.
There is, however, a lot more riding on the necessary requirements to secure the party’s ticket for the presidential seat. The race starts with the battle for delegates, and this is where true mastery of Nigeria’s political artifice starts. The value of delegates to each aspirant’s ambition is most important.
Any chance of victory for the aspirants would start with ensuring that their interests are well represented within the National Working Committee of the party. They would also need to closely follow the elections of state/Local Government Areas (LGA) Congress committees in order to know where their influences would be relevant in pushing their interests at the state levels.
The aspirants would also need to acquaint themselves with the list of delegates in order to facilitate their lobbying efforts. These are no easy tasks and, as Nigerian elections go, would require huge sums to accomplish and the intrigues usually play out in the justle for delegate votes among the contestants. It is safe to say that the four candidates would easily scale the first hurdle, which requires each aspirant’s expression of interest form to be endorsed by 10 delegates from each state and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
It is also possible that each aspirant’s advantage may not be financial as delegates could use their political interests as bargaining chips rather than for mere financial gains or be influenced by the president’s ‘body language, which could lead to a consensus decision.
One who seems to have mastered the art of capturing delegates is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the first in the party to declare his ambition. After over thirty two years honing his political craft by building a solid political base especially in the southwest but also across the country, Tinubu seems to be the master strategist among all the other candidates.
What most observers who predict a Tinubu candidacy are hinging their bets on are his political clout across the southwest, and a well established network of support all over the country that includes strong alliances across all geopolitical zones. No one can dispute the fact that, even with Buhari’s assured mass support in the north in 2015, a victory at the polls would not have been possible without Tinubu’s mobilisation of the southwest in support of Buhari.
As national leader of the party, Tinubu is highly respected. He has been the key force behind the APC’s hold on power in the southwest and has been very influential in the party’s internal affairs. So much that many pundits believe the ticket is his for the taking as recognition of his role in laying the foundation for the party’s current dominance.
This may not be the case, judging from the number of aspirants considered adherents of Tinubu’s political creed whose declarations boldly challenge his sole right to the seat. It would seem that governor Fayemi’s recent statement that the presidency is not an inheritance -when asked if his declaration was a betrayal of Tinubu -alludes to this challenge.
There are even speculations that the emergence of these aspirants are tied to plots within the party hierarchy to scuttle Tinubu’s ambitions by breaking his perceived exclusive hold on southwest delegates, in order to allow for a less dominant candidate. But this contradicts opinions that the whole idea behind the large number of aspirants is to flood the party primaries so as to prevent a consensus candidate. It could also be a grand scheme for Tinubu’s political allies to hold the Delegate votes in their states against other contenders and later collapse their structures for a Tinubu candidacy against whoever the PDP primaries eventually produce.
Tinubu hints at this possibility when he says “No one is running against me, we are all running against the PDP, and victory is assured insha Allah”, clearly downplaying any suggestions of a conflict of interests.
Amaechi has also been tipped as a likely candidate by some pundits chiefly because of his performance as minister and an obvious rapport with the president built over the years and strengthened by his Well recognised role in Buhari’s 2015 victory when he was DG of the Buhari campaign organisation.
His declaration of interest, made with great fanfare in presence of some APC leaders and a large crowd of supporters at the Adokiye Amiesimaka stadium in Port Harcourt, reignited speculations that he has the backing of the president, but this could also be said of the evidently large support that the declarations of Osinbajo, Tinubu and Fayemi have received across the party’s membership base.
Many believe that Amaechi’s continued stay as minister of transport, one of the few to have remained in same position throughout the administration, is tacit endorsement of his candidacy and proof of the president’s confidence in his administrative abilities.
Apart from the rapport between both men, the permutations of Amaechi’s likely success seem largely based on several political calculations. These include Amaechi’s young age of 56, which satisfies a growing demand for a more youthful leadership, and considering the agitations for the presidency to move to the southeast, his Ikwere ethnicity sells him as a bridge between the core Igbo and the south-south that is considered a consistent historical ally of both the north and the southwest.
Amaechi’s political antecedents are also considered reasons for his likely candidacy, especially his previous role as chairman of the powerful Governors Forum between between 2011 and 2015, a strong lobbying force through which, it is believed, he would have built influential connections that could provide a political advantage against the opposition.
Amaechi’s recent turbanning as Dan Amanar Daura (meaning trusted friend of Daura), in the president’s hometown, has also triggered rumours of a subtle political statement that has Buhari’s prints all over it. It is possible that his conferment with the title is more associated with the delivery of several projects in Daura, but also suggestive of a well crafted succession plan that includes presenting him to the core north as a trusted political ally.
There is also the belief that the recent selection of Abdullahi Adamu, as the chairman of the APC, fits into a larger plot to pick Amaechi as a consensus candidate but this is also speculative. However, it is almost impossible to separate facts from fibs in a race that is still clouded in uncertainties.
Fayemi is no small fish either. His contribution to the restoration of democracy in Nigeria is well recognised. In fact, he was with Tinubu in the trenches throughout the period of the struggle against the military regime of General Abacha and was one of the key forces in the democratic movements that took Nigeria’s battle for democracy to a global audience.
Fayemi also comes with an impressive academic and political background that would not be easy to overlook. His years as lecturer in several institutions in Africa, Europe, the Americas and Asia, and also as adviser on Transitional Justice, Regional Integration, Constitutionalism, Security Sector Reforms and Civil-Military Relations to various governments, multilateral institutions and development agencies adds to his mystique.
Over the years Fayemi has established himself within Nigeria’s present political framework after many years in the background, and has been able to use his network as the current chairman of the Governors Forum to consolidate his position as a force to be reckoned with.
Regardless of the number of aspirants and their impressive political records, the emergence of the party’s flag bearer would still rest mainly on the president’ endorsement as his popularity in the north would be a major factor in determining the outcome of the primaries. While several candidates have indicated their refusal of a consensus candidate, it is still a possibility, as the growing number of contestants would split alliances and margins of victory would be too thin to be decisive.
Whatever happens once a major reveal has been made would depend on the pedigree of the president’s candidate, if he has one, and the ability of the party to sell that candidate to Nigerians. If it turns out that the candidate ticks the boxes and quick steps are taken to redress grievances that may emerge after the primaries, it would be almost impossible to go against the president’s wishes.
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